Whilst nobody can be surprised at the complexity and challenge of the Brexit negotiations and what appears to be decline in cordial relations between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, what may come as a shock to many of the Brexiteers is the size of the divorce settlement. Upwards of €60 billion, with some sources claiming €80 billion is closer to the final amount, is being suggested in the media; this coupled with the Guardian newspaper’s report of the inclusion of family migration rights now being incorporated into the EU’s official negotiation guidelines and the threat to the City of London leading position is not at all what they thought they were signing up to.
The ripples in the Brexit pond appear to be extremely far reaching with the potential to impact on a far wider range of issues than previously expected. It is quite possible that should there be a referendum on the same subject tomorrow the outcome would be entirely different, now that we know more about the enormous costs, the position of the ex-pats in Europe, the potential impact on the law, the capability to retain trading relations with Europe, difficulty in creating new trading partners, the probable difficulty in recruiting the best brains from the EU pool, the retention of unrestricted rights of family members of EU citizens working in the UK to join them, the threat to the City of London’s dominance in the financial sector and the associated job losses and many other critical issues.
However, the position is unlikely to change and corporate leaders, who will bear the brunt of the issues, will have to develop elastic strategies to enable them to be able to react to all possibilities.
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